Why Study Water?

In 2002 when we set up Strategic Foresight Group, the

main objective was to provide forward looking analysis on

social, economic, geopolitical futures. In the last year,

we have added a heavy component of environment,

especially water to our portfolio. This has raised some

questions. Why does an organization that is focused on

geo-politics look at water related issues? How is the

future of water going to change socio-economic factors?

Is water scarcity going to lead to conflict over water?

And ultimately how is water going to change the future of

our world?

In our report on Global Security and Economy: Emerging

Issues, SFG lists 20 issues that are going to change the

future of the world. Water scarcity in emerging economies

ranked rather high on the list. In fact it was ranked at

number 5 out of 20. Emerging economies - particularly

India, China, South Africa and Turkey- are expected to

face shortage of fresh water in the next decade,

undermining their food security, social stability and in

some cases, raising the potential of regional conflict.

At an international conference organized by SFG in June

2008 on Responsibility to the Future: Business, Peace and

Sustainability, a panel on food and water security

discussed how these issues are addressed in diverse

countries and recommendations included the need for

continuous dialogue and compromise to deal with issues

relating to water before they escalate into violent

conflicts. The panel also recommended the need for

information exchange on shared waters.

An earlier SFG report- The Final Settlement- looked at

the relationship between India and Pakistan through three

prisms of earth, fire and water. The report argues that

any final settlement between the two countries will have

to be based on a realistic analysis of the water

situation in the Indus River Basin.

And yet earlier, SFG report- Rethinking India's Future:

Prosperity of the Periphery has identified land and water

availability as one of the key drivers for the future

development of India. The "breakdown" scenario includes

mismanagement of water as one of its signposts, while the

"breakthrough" scenario includes proper irrigation and

good water management for agriculture as a fundamental

milestone.

In many parts of the globe, water is perhaps the factor

that is most going to impact geo-politics, society and

development in the future. The scarcity of water in the

Middle East has been recognized as a key issue in many of

the peace negotiations over the last few decades. From

the Oslo process onwards, water has been given a central

role in talks.

International Alert has identified forty-six countries

where water and climate stresses could ignite violent

conflict by 2025. The World Wildlife Fund has identified

the top 10 rivers of the world that are at great risk

from pollution and ecological stress and can no longer be

assured of reaching the sea. These include the Salween,

La Plata, Danube, Rio Grande, Ganges, Murray-Darling,

Indus, Nile, Yangtze and Mekong. The basins of all these

rivers are home to millions of people, including 400

million who live in the basin of just the River Ganges.

Interestingly, the international river basins of the

world host about 40% of the world's population.

Centre for Atmospheric Research in the USA has recently

come out with a report that argues that some of the

world's major rivers are losing water because of climate

change. The study looks at 925 rivers from 1948 to 2004,

and found significant changes taking place in about a

third of the world's largest rivers. Rivers with

decreased flow outnumbered those with increased flow by

2.5 to 1.

But there are reasons to be optimistic as well. Dr Aaron

Wolf, a renowned expert on trans-boundary water has found

that in the last 50 years the incidence of cooperation

over water far outweighs that of violence. In fact out of

the 37 violent disputes, 30 occurred between Israel and

one of its neighbors. In the same period 157 water

treaties were negotiated and signed.

Our projects on water hope to build on the optimism. In

the next two years, 2009-2011, we will be examining the

impact of water stress in Asia and the Middle East, and

of course the contribution of climate change to the

melting of glaciers, erratic precipitation patterns and

other factors that will influence the availability of

water. We will also develop creative and collaborative

solutions in these two sensitive regions. After all,

strategic foresight is about anticipating problems and

transforming them into opportunities for conflict and

cooperation.

Ilmas Futehally is the Vice President of Strategic

Foresight Group, a think tank based in Mumbai, India.

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